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Black Thursday



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By another pothole

Posted: Thursday Aug 16 7:38:31PM 2007

The stockmarket has had a rough go of it lately. Accordingly many are feeling a lot of pain. Making fun of people and/or boasting about your market preformance is inappropriate at this time. Save it for another day. The Canadian marketplace appears to be considerably oversold. While nothing is certain I think we may have seen the end of the selloff today. Good fortune to everyone.

By dquinton

Posted: Thursday Aug 16 1:00:38PM 2007

I know what Tara is saying although I think it could be said a little more eloquently. Even though the TSX is off 4%, the TSX-Venture Exchange was down over 12% at one point today and is down almost 30% in the last 4 weeks. Here is an interesting posting from the Dekker-Hewett Group at Canaccord-Vancouver. I think this sums things up from where I stand on this sell-off. "Subprime loan debacle, liquidity crunch, US real estate meltdown. After a relatively uninterrupted run, global equity markets finally found the catalysts to ignite a meaningful selloff. Interestingly, while the past four weeks have taken shareholders on a rough ride, the decline in North American stocks doesn’t yet qualify as ‘correction’, having not reached the requisite 10% threshold. Though trying, periods such as this ultimately separate the successful investor from the self-defeating interloper. To an investor, virtually any decline in stock prices is viewed as an opportunity: an opportunity to deploy otherwise idle cash or, in the case of those already fully invested in quality companies, an opportunity to do nothing. This last assertion may sound paradoxical, so let me explain by way of example. For thirteen years, Peter Lynch managed the Fidelity Magellan Fund in the US, producing an astounding average annual return of over 29%. After his retirement in 1990, though, he calculated that over half of Magellan unitholders had actually lost money during his charge of the fund. How could this have occurred when the portfolio was producing such huge returns? It happened because equity performance is not earned in a straight line and the natural urge of most individuals is to bail out when markets fall, then buy back in after they’ve recovered lost ground. This flaw in human nature causes many to “sell low and buy high”, a certain recipe for investment disaster; standing pat with your portfolio (provided it is comprised of quality stocks trading at reasonable valuations) offers an easy leg up on the rest of the marketplace (professional or otherwise) which tends to overreact to each ebb and flow. If one accepts, as we do, that market fluctuations are unpredictable and, for the most part, inconsequential to long term results, one is then free to focus on company fundamentals. To paraphrase another well known investor, “it is during periods of market decline that stocks are returned to their rightful owners”. As you peruse your portfolio, and take in the market’s gyrations, it’s worth asking “am I a rightful owner?”

By murrayn

Posted: Thursday Aug 16 2:13:30PM 2007

I bought 30000 Baden today and also 1000 Addax petroleum (adx on the tsx). The latter is not a microcap but it got wacked by almost 10% despite fab profits.

By AHughes

Posted: Thursday Aug 16 9:55:12AM 2007

I sure hope that this is the only dark day for the next few weeks. TSX down over 4% already today...

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