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By Bobwins

Posted: Friday Oct 16 7:29:35AM 2015

CNE.to +.02 to C$3.35

great results but less than Clarinete 1 test results of 7,947boepd from two zones of the CDO reservoir.  This PR says they tested 4,491 from the CDO and doesn't mention upper or lower as did the first PR about Clarinete 1.  

2015-10-15 06:47 ET - News Release CANACOL ENERGY LTD. TESTS 30 MMSCFPD (5,316 BOEPD) AT CLARINETE 2ST IN COLOMBIA Clarinete 2ST, the first appraisal well drilled in Canacol Energy Ltd.'s recently discovered Clarinete gas field on the VIM 5 exploration and production (E&P) contract, has tested at a final gross rate of 25.6 million standard cubic feet per day (4,491 barrels of oil equivalent) of dry gas with no water from the Cienaga de Oro (CDO) reservoir and at a final gross rate of 4.7 mmscfpd (825 boepd) of dry gas with one barrel of water from the overlying Tubara sandstone reservoir. Canacol, through its wholly owned subsidiary CNE Oil & Gas S.A.S., holds a 100% operated interest in the VIM 5 E&P contract. The Clarinete-2 well was spud on August 2, 2015, and had to be sidetracked on August 31, 2015 after becoming mechanically stuck in the shallow Porquero shales at a depth of approximately 4,300 feet, not having reached the primary Cienaga de Oro reservoir target at 5,967 feet. The Clarinete-2 ST reached total depth of 7,842 feet on September 16, 2015. The well encountered 127 feet of total net gas pay with an average porosity of 23% within the same two main reservoir intervals of the Cienaga de Oro sandstone that tested a combined rate of approximately 44 mmscfpd in the Clarinete-1 discovery well. The CDO sandstone reservoir was perforated in various intervals between 6,307 and 6,657 feet measured depth ("ft md"). Flow testing of this interval achieved a final rate of 25.6 mmscfpd (4,491 boepd) using a 44 / 64 inch choke with a tubing head pressure of 2,107 pounds per square inch ("psi") with no water at the end of a 4 day test period. The final flow rate was registered at, and constrained by, the absolute measurement limit of the testing equipment. Clarinete 2ST also encountered dry gas within shallower sandstones of the overlying Tubara Formation, with four separate sandstone intervals exhibiting strong gas shows while drilling. Cased hole logs identified 135 feet of gas pay with average porosity of 17 % and neutron density cross over, which is an indication of the presence of potential gas. The Tubara was perforated over 37 feet between 4,828 and 5,555 ft md. Flow testing of this interval achieved a final rate of 4.7 mmscfpd (825 boepd) of dry gas on a 26 / 64 inch choke with a tubing head pressure of 1,326 psi with 1 barrel of water at the end of a 24 hour test period. No reserves or resources are currently booked in the Tubara, and the Corporation plans to continue the flow testing in order to establish the magnitude of reserves associated with this shallower reservoir. Upon completion of production testing at Clarinete 2 ST the drilling rig will be mobilized to the Oboe 1 site, located approximately 3 kilometers north of the Clarinete 1 discovery well. Oboe-1 is anticipated to spud in early November 2015 and will take approximately five to six weeks to drill and test. The Corporation also reports that the expansion of its production facility located at Jobo is on schedule, as is construction of the Promigas pipeline expansion, allowing the Corporation to increase gas production by 65 mmscfpd (11,400 boped) in December 2015. We seek Safe Harbor.
Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/bullboard/t.cne/canacol-energy-ord#iDbMD1glHg7iM0KP.99


By Bobwins

Posted: Monday Sep 21 8:04:51AM 2015

CNE.to  +.09 to C$3.03.  Canacol hit a recent low of C$2.01 on 8/24/15.  Been rallying ever since.  Should continue upwards as they announce Clarinette development wells.  I think Canacol will be a 2016 stock, as the dramatic increase in production and cashflow won't show up in the P&L until then.  Supposed to start 60+mcfpd contract in 12/15.  


By Bobwins

Posted: Monday Aug 10 2:19:38PM 2015

CNE  +.20 to C$2.38   Canacol has been steadily going down.  Market does not appear to believe that they can double production with fixed price ngas at year end 2015.  Debt may also be scaring off investors as well as uncertainty they can complete needed infrastructure to fufill contract production.  Today's update seems to confirm that things are on schedule but still not ready to produce at double today's production.

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/canacol-energy-ltd-provides-production-103000072.html


By Bobwins

Posted: Thursday May 14 1:36:05PM 2015

Canacol has sold off due to a loss for Q1.  

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/canacol-energy-ltd-reports-financial-210000896.html

Most of the loss was non cash items.  AND the big point is that Canacol won't benefit from the long term ngas fixed price contracts until 2016.  They are due to finish expanding their production facility until 11/15 and they need to contract someone to build a 160km pipeline to the coast so they can deliver their ngas to the buyer.  Upcoming catalysts are securing a contractor to build the pipeline, drilling two development wells starting in 7/15 that will supply the extra ngas to supply the 83.5mmcfpd required for the contracts.  So the price could drift until that happens.  The recent price increases in oil should help CNE.to , since they are still mostly oil production.  

Still think this is a medium term winner in 2016 as Canacol will be highly independent from oil price changes and cashflow will be around $150million.  The recent refinance of their debt was a positive sign that the lenders believe good things are coming.

This pullback could be a nice window to acquire shares for those who missed the first rally in CNE.to.


By Bobwins

Posted: Friday Apr 24 1:26:30PM 2015

Correction CNE current production is closer to 11K/d


By Bobwins

Posted: Friday Apr 24 1:21:50PM 2015

CNE.to  -.05 to C$3.63   

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/canacol-energy-ltd-enters-us-191825454.html

 

Canacol continues upwards.  This refinance is a major deal for Canacol.  Principal repayment is delayed and this will allow capex spending on their natural gas drilling and pipeline construction.  Deal was done on good terms, showing lender confidence in Canacol's ngas production future.  

Recent oil price increases are also a major boost for Canacol.  Most of their current production of 32,000boepd is oil.  Their future is the big contracts they have to produce ngas.  Forecasting ngas production to go from 20mmcfpd to 83mmcfpd in early 2016 and to 160mmcfpd by late 2016.  


By Bobwins

Posted: Monday Apr 6 9:02:56AM 2015

CNE.to  +.18 to C$3.18   Canacol looks very good compared to North American gas producers.  They do need to get their pipeline financed to get the gas to the coastal refineries.  Waiting for confirmation that the financing is done.  


By Bobwins

Posted: Wednesday Mar 18 9:15:10AM 2015

Canacol has been rallying hard the last few days.  today it's up .24.

The investing case for Canacol is their locally priced contracts with local utilities to buy natural gas in Colombia.  They are currently producing around 20mmcfpd ngas.  They have signed contracts from utilities to purchase 83mmcfpd from CNE by 12/15.  The pricing is from C$5 to 8/mcf.

This should result in $30+ netbacks for Canacol.  They are negotiating more contracts as they forecast production growth will double in 2016 to 160mmcfpd.  Their discovery well at Clarinete tested 20mmcfpd from two zones, giving the company confidence that they have excess production capacity.  

If they produce 83mmcfpd for a year, cashflow should be $120million+ and more than justify a higher share price.  Investors are missing the difference between Canacol and almost every other energy producer.  This is an unusual case of right place, right time.  As we get closer to 12/15 and Canacol increases production and cashflow, we should see more price appreciation.

 

http://www.canacolenergy.com/i/pdf/ppt/Canacol%20Energy_March%202015.pdf

 


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