Eagle Rock Exploration, ERX.v
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Posted: Friday May 2 7:40:16PM 2008
Over 800,000 shares trading today with the stock up 0.065 to $0.355. I see, bobwins, you sold yours at 0.305.
Posted: Tuesday Apr 22 8:43:49AM 2008
good point, Paul.. I was disappointed in the big dropoff in Q4 BEFORE the sale of producing wells. Some of the dropoff was weather related but the CFO confirmed that it was depletion that surprised them. Also the wells they sold were having problems and they felt lucky to be bought out for a fair price.
Near term, there is no doubt that ERX.v needs success at their recently announced farm-in locations at Jenson-Warner to rebuild momentum. Of course Spring Breakup has put them on hold. The only drilling going on now is a horizontal well, their first, at Red Coulee. Success here could lead to several more wells.
Posted: Tuesday Apr 22 6:45:03AM 2008
I can list one more reason why ERX is not trading with a high multiple. They have disappointed the market in the past with not reaching their projected production levels. Note that they spent over 13 million dollars in 2007 and Q4 production went from 464 boepd in 2006 to 489 boepd in 2007. The future may be bright but some people may be wondering how long it will take to get there.
Posted: Monday Mar 24 11:36:25AM 2008
A couple of followup notes on ERX.v
Bow River oil, which is API 24.9, traded at an avg of 70 in 1/08, $73 in 2/08 and is currently around $90 according to a stockhouse poster. That would mean an average of $77 in Q1. ERX got $64 in Q3 so Q1 netbacks should be good.
However they issued shares in a financing plus bought a small private company. That boosted outstanding shares to 54 million and combined with the lower production in Q4 due to weather and depletion of 500bpd, will lower cashflow to my estimate of .025 for Q4.
With the better prices in Q1, cashflow should bounce back to the .04 range. Going forward, the company is looking for 1000bpd exit rate. That kind of production at $80/boe for the medium heavy oil, would generate cashflow of around .07/qtr or .28/yr. That would put ERX.v at 1 X forward annualized cashflow. Beyond cheap into giveaway status! LOL!
I doubled up my small position today. Bobwins
Posted: Wednesday Mar 19 7:42:50PM 2008
Yes, good work Bobwins. In regards to "Jenson" I do believe that BNP Resources ( a small junior) is also in the Jenson area and have had some recent sucess there in the fall. BNP is also drilled in the Mississippian zone on their Jenson land but they claim they have light oil - not heavy. The reason I bring this up is how close is Eagle Rock to the BNP land? BNP sure attracted some nice investor interest and rise in share price on their discovery.
I do agree with you in that Eagle Rock is undervalued and I plan to further analysis it. Keep up the good work and updates.
Posted: Tuesday Mar 18 5:51:47PM 2008
Thanks for the update Bobwins. I bought in today.
Posted: Monday Feb 25 11:42:11AM 2008
+.045 to C$.295 only 10K shares traded but should be much higher based on cashflow last qtr and positive drilling news recently announced. .04 cashflow last qtr annualized is .16, which should lead to a share price in the .48 to .80 range. Recent positive drilling news plus higher oil prices look good for 2008. Bobwins