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Posted: Tuesday Sep 13 9:54:03AM 2005
I have recently bought back in to Hanfeng. When updating my dd, I tried to estimate what annualized EPS might look like a year from now.
My estimates of the contribution to EPS from each division are as follows:
Nursery (including contribution from the new EcoNursery and the Flahort joint venture deal) = $.13/share
First Fertilizer Plant (now at full capacity, assuming they do not add a third shift) = $.075/share
Second Fertilizer Plant (five times the capacity but with lower margins, to be complete in Q1 2006) = $.145/share
Landscaping (currently contributing perhaps $.15/share, be conservative even though there are 45M signed contracts and letters of intent outstanding) = $.10/share
Total estimated annualized earnings a year from now = $.45/share.
I’m back in at an average price of $2.45. It has been trading at slightly lower than that since.
I hope this helps everyone.
Posted: Tuesday Mar 8 1:21:36PM 2005
The problem with HangFeng Evergreen is that it is highly leveraged to the building boom in China rather than the long term economic growth. Then again the building boom could continue for a substantial period of time.
Posted: Tuesday Mar 8 11:58:09AM 2005
Well Doren still only trading at roughly 10X 2005 EPS, so if it drops any further I may be looking to take a position. Looking forward to hearing your comments in the future. Thanks