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PEIX



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By kaybo

Posted: Wednesday Oct 1 7:24:22AM 2014

And it continues too.....under $14 this morning.


By Dom

Posted: Friday Sep 19 11:01:34AM 2014

Quite the pullback lately


By Bobwins

Posted: Monday Aug 18 2:02:21PM 2014

PEIX continues to climb.  +.92 to 21.30 new52wkhi....

 

Corn crop appears to be massive and will keep corn prices cheap for the next year.  Likely farmers will plant less corn next year but the bumper crop has to go somewhere.  Ethanol producers are in the sweet spot, with ethanol prices holding up better than corn prices.  That means the corn crush spread is widening again and over $1.  

PEIX is still undervalued.  They made .77eps last qtr so fwd annualized eps would be ~$3.  Volatility in sector and their previous financial woes have resulted in a low p/e but more qtrs of profits should solve that.  

 

I don't hold any shares but have bought more options expiring in October.  Made good money on my August options.

 


By Bobwins

Posted: Wednesday Jul 30 1:42:27PM 2014

PEIX reports .68 eps for Q2 and .77 adjusted.  We'll see how it does tomorrow.  Paid full taxes this qtr and had much higher share count.  Corn is still dropping and ethanol holding so margins should be good for near term.  

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pacific-ethanol-reports-strong-second-200500437.html


By kaybo

Posted: Tuesday May 27 10:32:47AM 2014

well maybe not so much greed kills as it is greed wounds a little bit...PEIX holding its own.


By Bobwins

Posted: Thursday May 1 11:51:14AM 2014

PEIX -1.57 to 14.02

Greed kills.  I knew PEIX would have a blockbuster qtr based on the corn crush spread during Q1 but I also knew they had a significant non cash expense for warrants that would hurt Q1 profits.  I sold out after Q4 but couldn't resist going back in.  Today they reported a loss of .69 due to a $34million dollar charge for the runup in stock price last Qtr and the resultant increase in value of the outstanding warrants.  I wasn't expecting this big a charge.  My options are down over 50% from my buy price and it's not going to be pretty when I sell them.  I only have a few weeks till maturity so PEIX has to rally from here or I lose more.  I made so much money from the initial runup that I got greedy for more.  

Wrong!  

Expect the share price to recover some because they did have 34million in operating profits, reduced debt and restarted a 4th plant that will increase production by 33%.  Cashflow for the qtr was around 1.70 so selling for about 2X fwd cashflow.  Q1 will not be repeated, as margins were near all time highs but they should still have cashflow in the $5 range for 2014.  

Initial instincts are usually right unless disputed by real facts.  I was confident about the rev and cashflow side but only had hopes about the non cash charge.  I was wrong and the market says payup!

 


By Bobwins

Posted: Tuesday Apr 29 9:38:31PM 2014

I went back into PEIX using options.  Bought options at $15 and 17.50 strike prices.  Figured I would gamble with some of my previous gains from PEIX.  I know the profits are going to be large but the non cash expenses will be large also.  I am hoping that the early reporting is a sign that profits were still very good.  Only analyst recently changed his eps for this qtr to over $3!!!  I doubt that's right but I am hoping for over $1/share eps with a large non cash expense.  If you ignore the non cash derivate warrant expense, should be a blockbuster qtr.  

 

 


By Biofuel

Posted: Tuesday Apr 8 9:12:11AM 2014

Bob, the fair value adjustments is what scares me as well.  There should be enough info available to calculate this.  I just can find anyone who is able to explain it to me.

ANYONE?


By kaybo

Posted: Friday Apr 4 10:42:19AM 2014

Thanks for the heads up, I knew it was not a buy and hold, but with it bouncing between $14-$18 I figured it was at least safe until Q1, but sold 1/2 my holding today.  Had to keep the other half on hopes that the price of corn slips a bit and leads to a very impressive Q1.

Just have to find another one or two...or three to sink some PEIX profits into now ;)


By Bobwins

Posted: Friday Apr 4 10:12:18AM 2014

I sold out today.  I think the fair value adjustments will cause a Big non cash expense to take the wind out of Q1 eps numbers.  Cashflow will still be tremendous but momentum investors will look at the headline number.  Recent dramatic changes in the corn crush spread also worried me going forward.  Made a lot of money on PEIX but had dreams of much more!!! LOL!  


By Biofuel

Posted: Monday Mar 31 5:04:12PM 2014

Does anyone understand how fair value adjustments work with warrants?  Could really use an accountant


By Biofuel

Posted: Thursday Mar 27 10:45:22AM 2014

sorry, forgot the 1-866 # is no longer in use.

Call 415-433-3777


By Biofuel

Posted: Thursday Mar 27 9:46:14AM 2014

Bob,

I have been peppering Pacific Ethanol with requests to release their good news over weeks instead of how they did it last qtr, all in one big news release.  The should have something like 20 to 25 million in debt paid down this qtr not including money from warrants.  That should be something they can release first week of April.  And its definitely worth its own release.  They should also be able to give us an update on the Madera start up.  And then of course Q1.

I would expect a better plan on releasing news to have a substancial effect on stock price.

So far no reply to voice mail or email.

Rebecca Herrick is the Investor Relations

1-866-508-4969

InvestorRelations@pacificethanol.net

Anyone who has an interest in the stock price should give her a call.


By Biofuel

Posted: Monday Mar 24 5:31:08PM 2014

I just looked up the corn basis (cost of shipping corn) for Stockton California.  For the week of March 13th it was only $0.37 so I may very well have greatly over estimated the increase in the cost of shipping corn.  The 29 million is looking better and better.


By Biofuel

Posted: Monday Mar 24 3:13:31PM 2014

And California and Arizona are currently showing ethanol prices at $4.25/gallon.  If we assume that the rail car shortage has added $1 a bushel to the cost of corn, that works out to $0.36 a gallon added cost.  But at $4.25 a gallon we are still $1.55 a gallon above last qtrs average price.  PEIX averages 3 million gallons of ethanol a week.  The Utah plant won't get quite that premium so if we say 2/3rds at that premium and 1/3 at half the premium.  That gives us 3.1 + 0.75 = 3.85 . So just this week PEIX should earn an extra $3.85 million as compared to an average week last qtr.  And ethanol prices should stay high for at least the next couple months.


By Biofuel

Posted: Monday Mar 24 2:45:41PM 2014

Ya thats the problem with seeking alpha.  Any ding dong can write an article.  He sounds smart, but anyone who has a clue about the companies he is talking about knows that its mostly baffle and bull sh!t.  And maybe I miss understood him but he contradicted himself several times back to back.  I couldn't tell if he was fore or against the ethanol business half the time.  There are a lot of variables in play, but I fully expect PEIX to come in with profit from 27 to 30 million.  The only question is how many 7.50 warrants are redeemed.  May options became available today.  I bought at 17.50, 20, and 22.5.  I'm expecting q 1 to come out around May 11.


By Bobwins

Posted: Monday Mar 24 9:33:49AM 2014

That Seeking Alpha author was just trying to plug his REGI.  Beware of REGI, their revenue is going away this year.  They may be able to replace it but not sure.  That article was garbage.  Cited a lot of facts but ignored the reason for the ethanol price surge.  Weather and tanker car availability.  I responded to his article because I objected to the inaccuracies.  He had an agenda or he doesn't know that much about ethanol.  

Short term, PEIX is headed up.  Can't wait for Q1 eps.  Should be a big jump from a great Q4.  

 


By Biofuel

Posted: Monday Mar 24 9:15:57AM 2014

Yes second qtr should see an other 25% revenue boost because of Madera.  The corn crop in South America suffered a little and thats why corn moved up to 4.80 but the department of agriculture estimates the long term price of corn to move down to 3.90 for this year.  If we have a normal spring planting and decent weather that estimate is likely, and you can expect PEIX to have similar profits for the next year.

I managed to buy a heap of 12.50 March options for 0.09, 0.10 and 0.25 and sold them for 1.35 to 2.80.  Options are the way to go for volatile stocks for sure.  Limits your losses and adds a multiplier to your gains.  And you can play it both ways.  I bought some put options against Plug Power and made money on the way down as well.

Todays run for PEIX has come into into some selling.  Could be from a Seeking Alpha article thats has some incorrect info in it, suggesting PEIX's P/E ratio is extravigant, but the author must not be looking at the latest qtr.


By Bobwins

Posted: Saturday Mar 22 9:21:20PM 2014

If foresight is acting before thinking, then I use foresight all the time!  

PEIX came from Keith Schaefer.  I take his newsletter and ignored his earlier recommendation of GPRE.  I finally looked at the chart and was disappointed that I missed the recommendation because I didn't like ethanol stocks.  So when he brought up PEIX and I read the background info, I jumped on it.  I had a terrible 2013 so needed something to bring me back.  I decided PEIX was a great opportunity for a turnaround and sold several stocks to go all in on PEIX.

So far everything has worked out as I hoped.  The profits have come and now PEIX has the advantage of West Coast pricing and growth in sales from the Madera restart as well as the beet sugar.  I think that even though the industry is volatile, PEIX will get a decent p/e ratio when they string together several profitable qtrs.  Q1 should be another rocket booster for PEIX and then we have to see how the corn crop does.  

I don't normally use options a lot but the more I researched PEIX, the more I felt the profits would come and I wanted as many shares as possible.  I bought in the money options at first but then grew a little bolder and bought some 7.50 strikes as we got closer to Q4 results.  Of course, all the options worked great and I sold many of them right after earnings because I thought there would be a pause with no news.  

But the stock bounced back and I bought back the options at higher prices than I sold.  Again, I had to buy higher strikes due to the pricing but have control of about as many shares as I did before Q4 was released.  

It's all good so far.  We should get a great Q1 with higher revs and profits from Madera to keep PEIX moving up this summer.   

 


By Biofuel

Posted: Friday Mar 21 5:17:31PM 2014

Bob,

Have to say.  I've read a few of your posts here and there for the last 9 or 10 years.  And on easily 3 different forums.  I've made a little money a couple times.  This time though, wow, thank you.  I didn't read your posts until the end of Jan but then I started researching.  And I grew up on a farm so a lot of the research was easy to understand.   

My research puts profit for first quater that ends next week at easily $29 million.  With no dilution thats $1.80/share.  My estimate for 4th qtr free cash was bang on so I am cautiously optimistic that these numbers are pretty good.

Ethanol in California has been at $3.50/gallon since feb and move up to 4$ this week  Oregon 3.25 to 3.75 now. 

Last qtr prices for PEIX averaged $2.36.  Now the cost of shipping corn is up but even at $1 a bushel that works out to a charge of only $0.35 a gallon. 

And the price of corn is also up about 0.40 but at 4.80 corn that is less than a 10% increase in material costs.  which works out to a 3.5% penalty per gallon of ethanol

With sales of 40 million gallons a qty from less than 13.5 million bushels, its pretty easy to see whats going on.  And then don't forget the 2.1 million in savings from the beet root sugar they started using.

And then don't forget the extra 7% of the producing ethanol plants that they purcased at the start of this qtr?

And the lower depth and better interest rate?

And further proof, by mid Feb they had enough free cash flow to pay down 10million in dept.  And thats with the lower average ethanol price of around $2.69 for the first 6 weeks.

Bob, what an impressive demostration of foresight.  What first put you on to the whole idea of an ethanol turn arround and this stock to buy?

I was just apporve for options, I should have been trading like this 10 years ago. 

Would be interested in your thoughts.


By Bobwins

Posted: Friday Mar 21 11:34:06AM 2014

I've been retired for over 13 years so PEIX ain't gonna change my employment status.  However, I did make a big bet that it would help me recover from some poor picks over the past couple of years.  So far so good.  Need more!!!!

Expecting $25-$30 after Q1 results are posted in late April/early May.  If we hit those numbers, I will have to consider selling some because it's such a big percentage of my holdings.  A drought could kill me!  Grow corn, grow! 

 

 


By murrayn

Posted: Friday Mar 21 10:09:46AM 2014

Bobwins if you held enough of this stock you could retire after just  3 months of gains. It even got a mention on CNBC today. 


By Dom

Posted: Friday Mar 7 8:56:52PM 2014

I sold my holding when the shares hit $16 for a quick gain of %60 in 2 weeks!

I know If I held longer the share price would probably hit $20 after Q1 results but I wanted

to lock in those gains now and reinvest the money into another company

 


By Bobwins

Posted: Friday Mar 7 10:49:03AM 2014

PEIX -.56 to 14.87      Pacific Ethanol had a big dip today down to 14.24.  I still believe very strongly in the PEIX story.  Q1 is coming up and I expect better eps results for Q1 over the .54eps in Q4 2013.  I am expecting .70-90 eps.  

 

That should cause another pop in PEIX into the 20's.  I sold some 3/14 options after the big pop into the $15 area.  

It's hard to just multiply the Q1 results by 4 and come up with a forward p/e.  Ethanol is so volatile that it's difficult to assume that all the variables will stay stable for that long.  BUT let's say they hit .80eps in Q1 and they are still selling for less than $20.  I expect a big pop into the mid 20's.  I held all my stock and bought some more options this week(of course I'm underwater on those).  

The price for West Coast ethanol is much higher than prices in the MidWest.  Due to the winter storms AND lack of available tanker cars, ethanol is selling for 3.50 on the West Coast.  PEIX doesn't do much hedging so they should be getting those kind of prices lately.  

Since I expect prices to move towards $30, I think the current prices are ok to buy.  We are more than 2/3's of the way thru Q1 and PEIX should have bigger profits than Q4 2013 due to the higher ethanol prices.  Corn has been rising lately due to the Ukraine crisis so that is troubling and you should watch that trend closely.  

So far so good.  

 


By Dom

Posted: Monday Mar 3 6:07:49PM 2014

How low would it have to dip for you to add some more shares Bobwins?


By Bobwins

Posted: Monday Mar 3 1:12:57PM 2014

PEIX  +1.35 to US$15.02   Wow!  Super volatile today.  Traded massive volume of 3.8million shares or something close to $60million bucks worth.  Dipped as low as 13.04 at the open and then took off mid morning to 16.30 before settling back to around $15.  I was planning on buying more options but they are expensive and market makers don't drop the prices when the stock sells off.

There is still many weeks before Q1 report so I think I will get more chances to buy at reasonable prices but was surprised by the big rally today.   


By Dom

Posted: Wednesday Feb 26 8:52:48PM 2014

With Ethanol prices stablized and Corn prices still down, Qtr 1 should be better like you mentioned Bobwins

Not to mention the reopening of the Madera Plant

 


By Bobwins

Posted: Wednesday Feb 26 1:11:44PM 2014

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pacific-ethanol-inc-reports-record-210500230.html     .54 eps for the qtr.  Q1 should be better.  

Selling for around 5X fwd p/e.  Bigger pure play GPRE sells for around 15X p/e.  

 

We'll see how the stock trades tomorrow.  Could be a lot of sell on the news types...  

 

 

 

 

 

 


By Dom

Posted: Friday Feb 21 6:51:42PM 2014

And if year ends turn out to be great and the price is indeed dirt cheap the $8 price right now will most likely skyrocket


By Bobwins

Posted: Thursday Feb 20 6:46:07AM 2014

So here is the first tangible proof that PEIX has made the turn or NOT.  Only have to wait a week to find out if $8 is dirt cheap or really expensive.  My vote is dirt cheap but the numbers will tell the story.  

 


Pacific Ethanol to Release Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2013 Results 

SACRAMENTO, Calif., Feb. 20, 2014 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Pacific Ethanol, Inc. (Nasdaq:PEIX), the leading marketer and producer of low-carbon renewable fuels in the Western United States, announced it will release its fourth quarter and year-end 2013 financial results after the market closes on Wednesday, February 26, 2014. Management will host a conference call at 8:00 a.m. Pacific Time / 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time on Thursday, February 27, 2014. Neil Koehler, Chief Executive Officer, and Bryon McGregor, Chief Financial Officer, will deliver prepared remarks via webcast followed by a question and answer session. 

The webcast for the call can be accessed from Pacific Ethanol's website at www.pacificethanol.net. Alternatively, you may dial the following number up to ten minutes prior to the scheduled conference call time: (877) 847-6066. International callers should dial 00-1- (970) 315-0267. The pass code will be 2279206#. If you are unable to participate on the live call, the webcast will be archived for replay on Pacific Ethanol's website for one year. In addition, a telephonic replay will be available at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Thursday, February 27, 2014 through 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on Thursday, March 6, 2014. To access the replay, please dial (855) 859-2056. International callers should dial 00-1-(404) 537-3406. The pass code will be 2279206#. 

About Pacific Ethanol, Inc. 

Pacific Ethanol, Inc. (Nasdaq:PEIX) is the leading marketer and producer of low-carbon renewable fuels in the Western United States. Pacific Ethanol also sells co-products, including wet distillers grain ("WDG"), a nutritional animal feed. Serving integrated oil companies and gasoline marketers who blend ethanol into gasoline, Pacific Ethanol provides transportation, storage and delivery of ethanol through third-party service providers in the Western United States, primarily in California, Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Oregon, Colorado, Idaho and Washington. Pacific Ethanol has a 91% ownership interest in New PE Holdco LLC, the owner of four ethanol production facilities. Pacific Ethanol operates and manages the four ethanol production facilities, which have a combined annual production capacity of 200 million gallons. The facilities in operation are located in Boardman, Oregon, Burley, Idaho and Stockton, California, and one idled facility is located in Madera, California. The facilities are near their respective fuel and feed customers, offering significant timing, transportation cost and logistical advantages. Pacific Ethanol's subsidiary, Kinergy Marketing LLC, markets ethanol from Pacific Ethanol's managed plants and from other third-party production facilities, and another subsidiary, Pacific Ag. Products, LLC, markets WDG. For more information please visit www.pacificethanol.net. 

CONTACT: Company IR Contact: 
Pacific Ethanol, Inc. 
916-403-2755 
866-508-4969 
Investorrelations@pacificethanol.net 

IR Agency Contact: 
Becky Herrick 
LHA 
415-433-3777 

Media Contact: 
Paul Koehler 
Pacific Ethanol, Inc. 
916-403-2790 
paulk@pacificethanol.net 
Source: Pacific Ethanol, Inc. 


By Bobwins

Posted: Thursday Feb 20 12:27:31AM 2014

PEIX has doubled since I first bought it.  So it has moved up a lot BUT PEIX had a disastrous 2012 with BIG losses from the high corn costs caused by the Midwest drought that hurt corn production.  Corn dropped over 60% in 2013 as farmers planted huge acreage to take advantage of the high prices.  That should have lead to big profits at PEIX but they had so many left over problems that they lost money thru 3 qtrs of 2013.  So PEIX has yet to show profits from the big drop in the largest component of their cost.  

This hurt PEIX stock and so I think the stock is still undervalued.  IF they can show net profits approaching $1/qtr, the stock could still soar from here.  How high?  I am expecting the stock price to move into the 20's if they reach $1 in Q1.  I expect Q4 2013 to be less than a buck but still profitable.  

PEIX has a couple of advantages over other ethanol producers.  They are on the West Coast only and are getting higher ethanol prices now(currently about .50/gallon).  They produce 35-40million gallon/qtr so this difference is significant.

They have growth coming in 2014 because they have a fourth plant that they will likely restart and increase production to 45 to 50 million gallons per qtr.  That should help the stock price because they won't restart it unless the margins are good.  A profitable restart could cause net profits to rise beyond a buck and result in a stock price in the 30's.  

So these are all speculations until we see the margins from Q4, Q1 and the rest of 2014.  PEIX is a show me stock and is still risky but it's my biggest position and I am expecting to make a lot of money once the financials are available.  The fundamentals thru right now are very positive but can change quickly.  So PEIX is definitely not a buy and hold stock.  If you buy, you need to keep an eye corn futures, ethanol prices and learn to calculate the corn crush spread.  You can google it and find out how to calculate it.  

 


By Dom

Posted: Wednesday Feb 19 9:05:40PM 2014

Thinking about initiating a small position but I feel a lot of the recent gains have already been had

Bobwins show me the light! (let me know how much upside there is from now lol)


By Bobwins

Posted: Tuesday Feb 18 9:51:19PM 2014

PEIX  +.32 to $8.09    Pacific Ethanol still climbing towards earnings at monthend March.  News still good.  Ethanol is climbing above $2 and West Coast prices are about .50 higher than that due to lack of railcars to move the ethanol.  Most tanker cars are being used to move Bakken and Canadian oil.  

Corn has moved up a bit but margins are still positive and Q4 numbers should be very good.  


By Bobwins

Posted: Monday Jan 20 12:05:17PM 2014

PEIX ,US$7.12,is my biggest position.  Ethanol fundamentals continue to be very strong, with margins at all time highs.  Corn prices remain low, ethanol prices are just below $2 and higher on the West Coast for PEIX.  By product revs are good, with Distillers grain a popular animal feed and corn oil extraction improving by product income.  

Ethanol is cheaper than gasoline so refiners are happy to blend it with gasoline to improve their margins.  

Exports have continued to climb as demand increases for low cost American ethanol.  China has a horrid pollution problem and ethanol burns cleaner than regular gasoline.  China bought US exported ethanol for the first time recently.  Exports could climb to 1 billion gallon in 2014, up from virtually nothing a few years ago.  

I am expecting a multibagger from here from PEIX.  I have seen projected eps of $5/yr if current conditions remained the same thru 2014.  Stock price should be at least $30 if those eps estimates are in the ballpark.  


By Bobwins

Posted: Tuesday Jan 14 6:44:03PM 2014

PEIX  +.56 to 6.38  PEIX continues to build.  Up over 50% from where I started buying but think it could easily be a multibagger from here.  If they string three or four profitable qtrs together, this stock could be over $20.  The components of ethanol are volatile so they may not be able to consistently be profitable but the fundamentals continue to look positive now.  

 


By Bobwins

Posted: Tuesday Jan 7 4:04:14PM 2014

So far so good.  PEIX closed at 5.36 today.  I've been buying 4/14 options with a 2.50 strike price for 2.40 to 2.80.  They should have announced Q4 and 2013 results by 4/14.  Also sold covered calls today for 2/14 and 7.50 strike for .20 to get a little income.  After February, won't sell covered calls because I think the stock should have too much upside that I don't want to lose by selling the calls. 

Fundamentals still remain good.  Ethanol is just below $2 and corn prices have been low.  the corn crush spread is solidly positive and export demand in other countries is good because ethanol is cheaper than gasoline so economical to blend with gasoline.  Also cheap US corn prices make US ethanol cheaper than some overseas ethanol.

Expecting a multibagger from here.  Q4 results should be the first profitable qtr with more good results to come in 2014.  PEIX just started blending ultra cheap surplus sugar purchased from the USDA into it's feedstock.  Could reduce overall production costs by 10%.  More sugar purchases could up that savings. 

I won't know if I'm right about PEIX until the Q4 financials come out so have to wait at least 2 more months to find out.   


By Bobwins

Posted: Thursday Dec 26 8:39:50AM 2013

Peix is a US stock but I've been buying lately.  Ethanol producer based in Western US.  Been losing money for a couple of years but 2014 should be different.  

Corn prices went thru the roof during 2012 drought in US.  That caused big losses at PEIX.  But 2013 crop was record and prices fell.  That means costs are going down for PEIX.

Profits can be estimated by Corn Crush Spread, which is the difference between cost of producing ethanol(2.75 gallons per bushel of corn) vs price of ethanol.  Negative for most of 2012 so obviously PEIX lost big.  Has turned positive recently and is currently over $1.

PEIX produces 35 to 40 million gallons of ethanol per qtr.  35million X$1 = 35million gross profits vs 15+million shares outstanding.  

Q4 should be profitable for PEIX and lead to a big jump in share price.  Currently US$4.85.  

http://www.progressivefuelslimited.com/Web_Data/pfldaily.pdf

You can track corn crush spread here.  Should be a good predictor of profitability for PEIX.  

PEIX was a $100 stock 3 years ago.  

 


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