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Raydan - question for Doren



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By Gee

Posted: Tuesday Dec 20 5:13:17PM 2005

TA4U, I know enough about TA to not try and use it on thinly traded micro-cap stocks during tax loss selling season. For the most part TA is a lagging indicator that is reactionary to fundamental changes by the time it shows up in a chart you have already missed some of the biggest gains (short or long). TA can be useful when dealing with long term trends in highly liquid investments, but with thinly traded stocks you can get wiped out pretty quickly. You best chance of making consistent positive returns with these types of stocks are to do the D and understand why you are buying/selling (fundamentals analysis). For example, I recommended people look at NCF.UN last week @ $8 I am sure you would have looked at the chart and recommended people not buy. I knew though it was a solid trust with good fundamentals. It got a small plug on ROBTV confirming it was a good company and the price has reacted over the last 3 days hitting $8.94 today. I am sure TA types are now buying because the chart looks good, but because they relay on TA have missed a 12% gain. BTW: The only TA indicator I still use is the OBV as it can indicate a stock is under accumulation or is base building. I also will use candle sticks 3/5 day rules for timing entry and exit points when a stock does move (guess what I sold today :) ).

By ousmane

Posted: Tuesday Dec 20 11:32:35AM 2005

cd sale is all through. this i am quite sure of.

By Gee

Posted: Tuesday Dec 20 9:58:53AM 2005

TA means nothing when you have one seller who was pushing the price down. Now that he is done we will see the price start to climb again. Looks like I might have gotten the last 2K from the icebreg seller at .90 cents.

By pritz

Posted: Tuesday Dec 20 9:38:27AM 2005

I picked up more at .90 and .92 today also, looks like the iceberg is done On the ask... 18K @ .95 11K @ .97 2K @ .99 3K @ 1.00 5K @ 1.05 6.5K @ 1.09 20K @ 1.1 2K @ 1.12 2K @ 1.19 1K @ 1.49 2K @ 5.78 2K @ 5.89

By dquinton

Posted: Tuesday Dec 20 8:13:16AM 2005

I will admit that market depth looks weak on this one and I would normally pay more attention to market depth but in this case almost all of the selling has come from one firm. True, he may be willing to sell lower but he also might run out of paper today. We just have no way of knowing for sure unless someone knows this individual. If the selling was widespread, I likely would have sat on the sidelines a bit longer.

By TA4U

Posted: Tuesday Dec 20 6:35:44AM 2005

Dundee, here is the annotated chart. I just hope it will show here... If not,try copying the link. Remove the front and end brackets first. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=RDN.V%2Cuu%5Bh%2Ca%5Dwaclyyay%5Bdd%5D%5Bpd10%2C2%21i%21c10%21c30%21c50%21c90%21c200%5D%5Bvc60%5D%5Biut%21la2%2C14%2C12%21lb8%21lk21%21lp8%2C3%2C3%21lya8%2C10%2C28%5D%5BJ65114493%2CY%5D Aside from that, here is MD as of 9h53:You will notice the iceberg sell order at .92: Market Book By Order Bid Spec Time Broker Volume Price A 11-24 07:00 57 200 0.94 12-20 08:50 2 300 0.93 12-19 13:36 85 200 0.92 12-19 12:25 85 5,000 0.90 12-20 07:33 7 2,000 0.90 12-20 07:39 57 1,500 0.90 12-19 12:02 2 2,000 0.89 12-20 08:05 9 2,000 0.88 12-19 10:03 88 5,000 0.86 11-10 11:27 95 7,500 0.85 A 12-19 09:58 80 2,500 0.82 12-19 10:00 7 2,000 0.82 11-01 12:36 95 7,000 0.80 11-10 11:07 33 7,500 0.75 11-29 11:59 64 50,000 0.75 11-14 08:51 95 10,000 0.26 Ask Price Volume Broker Time Spec 0.92 5,000 5,000i 26 12-20 09:42 0.95 18,000 37 12-20 08:40 0.97 10,000 7 12-20 07:34 0.97 1,000 7 12-20 09:34 0.99 2,000 7 12-19 10:02 1.00 1,000 2 12-13 13:04 1.00 2,000 2 12-16 15:03 1.00 2,000 79 12-19 15:37 A 1.03 500 80 11-15 08:06 A 1.05 5,000 95 12-08 11:52 1.10 20,000 9 11-16 14:41 1.12 2,000 9 11-28 08:00 1.19 200 57 11-24 07:00 A 1.19 2,000 7 12-05 12:16 1.33 200 57 11-24 07:00

By ousmane

Posted: Monday Dec 19 6:41:36PM 2005

Odd one to tax sell given the potential of RDN. With tax selling period winding down, the Commission Direct selling seems increasingly aggressive. Wonder how down seller is willing to sell at? And of course, how many shares.

By dundee

Posted: Monday Dec 19 6:26:48PM 2005

TA4U: I am curious as to what technical indicator you are seeing that is calling for a severe prolonged downturn at present. What I see is a stock hovering at a long-term and significant support level ($0.90) and holding despite significant tax loss selling. Thanks.

By TA4U

Posted: Monday Dec 19 3:56:19PM 2005

Doren, your in is perhaps a bit soon, technically: severe downtrend just started. BTW, all the best to you and all the fine members for this holiday and throughout next year. TA4U

By leslie

Posted: Monday Dec 19 8:07:59AM 2005

I think the selling is probably tax loss related. Regarding the royalties timing, the company did state in their August 2004 pr that it could take as long as 18 months for production to start by Arvin Meritor so January 2006 is not off the mark. As we have seen with so many microcap companies they are at the mercy of the much larger partner. At least here we are not waiting for orders to come in (like ili). Its a matter of when not if. This share price is a bargain im my view.

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