RGY - What the hell happened?
Posted: Wednesday Mar 1 8:23:49AM 2006
So if we assume exit production in 2005 was 900 bpd, and on November 22 they forecast 1200 for year end, that means their forecast error in 5 weeks was 25% below. Not good. The market is stating its opinion of management today.
Posted: Tuesday Feb 28 11:57:28AM 2006
Based on the 9 month average production of 829 boepd and the year average of 843 boepd, I calculate that Q4 production was 885 boepd. I had a good chat with management today to determine production levels during Q4 and an outlook into 2006. Rival did announce in late August that they were producing 1000 boepd with another 100 boepd behind pipe. They lost a bit of production to declines in September and October and then got a boost from the Killam wells in November which is when they announced production of 1,100 boepd and plans to exit at over 1,200 boepd. They also scheduled the drilling of 7 wells by the end of the year and also planned to tie-in their 100 boepd which was behind pipe . These activites did not occur prior to year-end due to rig availability and other delays. In late November, Rival had some difficulty with the Killam wells which basically watered out prematurely. Along with these wells and natural decline, this knocked production back to 850 to 900 boepd. Now for an outlook into 2006. The company is currently drilling in the Manir area and then plans to take the rig down to Korbett Creek to drill an exploratory well there. Rival is still waiting for a rig to start development drilling at Bellshill (W4) and also has 2 wells at Killam planned. The company is also waiting on a third party to start drilling at Robsart which was expected to be drilled by the end of March. These wells are also development. I expect that Rival will be back to 1,000 boepd in the short-term and can then move forward once again.