Hello there guest! Want to join in on the conversation? Login or register for a forums account by visiting this link.
Posted: Monday Oct 29 1:13:05PM 2007
Alberta Star (ASX.v) is getting ready to rumble. Shares rose 13.2% today. Half of the volume and most of the increase took place in the last 30 minutes of trading.
I got in with both feet today. I expect a gap up tomorrow and nice move over the next few days.
Posted: Monday Oct 29 12:43:52PM 2007
Forsys Metals (FSY) on the TSX is up 56% in 5 trading days.
$2.97 at the close on Oct 22.
Posted: Wednesday Sep 26 1:12:47PM 2007
Is this a good entry point for uranium stocks?
Holding UPC and may buy some more!
Posted: Wednesday Jul 25 9:35:57AM 2007
Thanks for your resourceful reply Bobwins. Any Thoughts BHP Billiton This one seems like a 1.5 bagger in the next 24 months due to China. and of course it owns the largest known deposit of uranium in the world - dwarfing the next known uranium resource by 13 times!! Lots of catter about a secret deal going on with China.
Posted: Saturday Jul 21 11:13:49PM 2007
July 22, 2007
By James Finch and Julie Ickes
coming soon! Print Version
Adobe Reader required click here for free download
Spot Uranium Price Holds Steady
Cameco Conversion Facility Closure Could Pressure U3O8 Price Higher
Contaminated soil, containing uranium and related chemicals, found beneath Cameco’s Port Hope conversion facility – located about 60 miles east of Toronto – could place ‘significant’ upward pressure on the spot uranium price. Cameco Fuel Services, at 1 Eldorado Place in Port Hope, is about one-quarter mile from the shores of Lake Ontario. Source: Cameco Corp.
When Cameco Corp (NYSE: CCJ) announces bad news, this generally becomes good news for the spot uranium price.
According to Friday’s edition of Nuclear Market Review (NMR), “The spot price held steady this week, in large part, due to the uncertainty created by Cameco’s announcement late Friday that its Port Hope (Ontario) conversion facility will be shut down for a minimum of two months.” The weekly industry trade magazine left the TradeTech spot uranium price indicator unchanged at US$129/pound.
News announcing the facility’s closure for two months ‘is expected to place significant upward pressure on the spot price,’ according to NMR editor Treva Klingbiel. She estimated a ‘minimum loss of 2,000 tU of UF6 production’ during the shutdown.
Although Cameco reported the company has adequate inventory to meet its delivery commitments through the end of the year, Klingbiel pointed out, “The psychological impact on the market of this event can not be discounted, given historical experience with previous conversion disruptions.”
During the previous three weeks, the spot uranium price slid because of weak demand and ample spot supplies. Klingbiel explained, “Sharply rising prices have led to budget constraints that have prohibited some utilities from participating in the spot market.”
More supply is coming into the market, but not in the overpowering quantity some feared, e.g. five million pounds from the U.S. government.
Nearly 200 metric tons of UF6 was offered earlier this week by the U.S. Department of Energy for delivery by September 21st. This sale represents slightly more than 10 percent of the sizeable amount bandied about in the media a few months ago.
And some buyers are still active. According to NMR, “One non-U.S. utility is expected to enter the market soon to secure approximately 200 thousand pounds U3O8.”
While the uranium market has been quiet, it is far from dead. A week ago, Klingbiel wrote that the underlying fundamentals of the long-term uranium market were instead very much alive.
And it’s no wonder considering the realistic length of time many of the newer uranium projects will take to actually become uranium mines.
The Follies of Forecasting Future Uranium Supply
The Citi never sleeps, but maybe the group’s uranium analyst dozed, when offering his uranium price forecasting.
On Thursday, a local newspaper, Northumberland Today, reported rumors of something significant possibly taking place at Cameco Corp’s Port Hope conversion facility, and which could also impact local residents. Cameco communications spokesman Doug Prendergast told the reporter on July 18th, “There’s nothing major that’s imminent.”
The story’s headline: Cameco Quashes Rumors.
Prendergast also said, “If there’s anything to announce, we get it out immediately. Unless they (employees) know something I don’t.” Maybe they did, because…
On Friday afternoon, Cameco issued its third piece of bad news for the week, shutting down the Port Hope facility for at least two months. Earlier in the week, Cameco had announced another delay at the company’s Cigar Lake uranium project and lowered estimates on gold production on another property. As has been the case with Cameco in the recent past, at some future point we should be greeted with ‘further developments.’
Although uranium is abundant in many regions around the world, economically and expediently recovering uranium is not as easy as many ‘armchair quarterbacks’ suspect.
During this past week, we expanded our commentary about problematic uranium projects, present and future, in the world of uranium mining. Initially, we discussed several potentially ‘tainted’ major mining projects in key uranium-producing regions in our Uranium Outlook 2007-2008.
Our intent was to help educate many analysts and investors who have taken far too seriously the many forward-looking news releases and overly optimistic power point presentations by uranium mining company executives.
Take for example Citigroup’s Alan Heap. Our Australian colleagues at FNArena.com often have a few laughs at Mr. Heap’s expense, reporting on his seemingly misguided analysis of the uranium market. Out of pity, we sent Mr. Heap a complimentary copy of Investing in the Great Uranium Bull Market, and hoped he would more accurately analyze the commodity which his firm has charged him to accurately report upon.
Although Mr. Heap recently capitulated and upgraded his uranium price forecast – to US$100/pound for the next three years – in his early July ‘Mutation to Uranium Utopia’ commentary, his long-term analysis is lacking.
Hopefully, uranium miners will skip this next part to avoid uncontrollable chortling.
Mr. Heap wrote, “Barriers to entry for mine production are relatively low. Exploration and mine development are not particularly complex.” As a result of these deep thoughts, Mr. Heap forecast a long-term uranium price of US$25/pound, sometime after 2010.
In an article this past week, we warned, “Too much water, too little water, politics, greenies, economics, indigenous tribes, desalination plants, NGOs, camel trails, regulators and rebels are but a few of the land mines analysts face when hoping to forecast long-term uranium price peaks.” We also cautioned, “The safest bet is seemingly against future uranium production.”
We wrote this because developing uranium mines can be especially complex in today’s regulatory climate. Having reviewed hundreds of presentations, filings, prefeasibility and more advanced studies and other documents, it is a tribute to the persistence of uranium miners that any uranium mining actually takes place.
Of the world’s large mines, where we anticipated problems this year and next, we included Rio Tinto’s (NYSE: RTP) Rossing in Namibia. In a news release this past week, the company announced Rossing’s production fell about 400 metric tons U3O8 in the second quarter – down by 29 percent compared to the same period a year ago.
In 2006, Rossing ranked third, behind Cameco’s McArthur River and ERA’s Ranger, in terms of uranium producing mines. This quarterly production shortfall represents about 13 percent of the Rossing mine’s production last year and slightly less than one percent of the world’s total uranium mined for the year.
Progress is taking place in moving uranium projects forward, but they are not happening as fast as many analysts believe. Mr. Heap did highlight in the summary of his report, “Mine supply is not responding immediately.” No kidding, Mr. Heap.
In this past week’s coverage, we pointed out some of the reasons why mine supply is not coming online as rapidly as some once believed. There are more problems ahead, which have come across our radar, and we are following up on these. Please stay tuned.
Finally, the new update to StockInterview’s “Investing in the Great Uranium Bull Market.” The completely updated CD-ROM version offers uranium price guidance for 2007-2008 and a special ‘How to Choose Uranium Stocks in 2007.’ Also included are outlooks for production and potential future problems at several major uranium mines; the outlook for Australia, Russia, Kazakhstan, the United States, Africa and elsewhere. We also included a safe haven basket of uranium companies. How high do we expect spot uranium to reach and when will the spot uranium price likely peak? It’s all in the new CD-ROM book. Order
Posted: Tuesday Jun 5 12:28:42PM 2007
I bought UUU couple years ago and got SXR shares couple months ago. Countries are building more nuclear plants. Before, the U.S. got most of its oil from Middle East but now about 25% of its oil come from Africa. Other countries face the same situation. Nuclear plants is one of the options they have to get a stable supply of energy.
Posted: Tuesday Jun 5 9:47:16AM 2007
Bobwins, agree whole heartedly that current price is high - what is your target entry price?
Posted: Monday Jun 4 2:43:48PM 2007
SXR bought EMC today. It appears this will make them 4th behind CCO, PDN and ERA for market cap and 3rd in resource with over 500 million lbs in the ground. Will try to add a position under 15.00. any thoughts?
Posted: Sunday Jun 3 10:27:57PM 2007
Uranium continues to move up in price. Last price was $133 and one of the pricing sources moved it up to $138 on Friday pending the actual results of the latest auction. It could move over $140/lb on Monday when the actual results are announced. Two separate lots of uranium were auctioned off.
I continue to favor near term producers who will produce in the next two years and benefit from these prices.
UMN.to is my favorite with three mines moving towards production and test mining to begin this winter.
Other near term producers include URZ, STM.v, FRG, UPC.v, PWE.v, SXR.to. Bobwins
Posted: Sunday Mar 11 12:12:34PM 2007
March 9, 2007
By James Finch
Ranger Uranium Mine Pit 3 Flooded
World’s Third Largest Uranium Producer Underwater
A Loss of Up to 4 Million Pounds U3O8 in 2007?
U.S. and other utilities dependent upon newly mined uranium to power their nuclear reactors can add yet another supply headache to their plate. Energy Resources of Australia declared ‘force majeure’ on its uranium sales contracts to utilities the company supplies in North America, Europe and Asia.
TradeTech chief executive Gene Clark told StockInterview, “ERA or their customers or both will have to be in the market either buying or borrowing.” TradeTech roughly estimates that 2007 production – relying only on stockpiled ore at historically low, but acceptable head grades – could reach as low as 7.5 million pounds U3O8. According to Clark, “This could represent a loss in production of up to 4 million pounds of U3O8, compared to an average year for Ranger.” This amount represents about four percent of worldwide uranium production in 2006.
To read the entire feature, visit: http://www.stockinterview.com/News/03092007/Ranger-Flooded-ERA.html
Posted: Sunday Mar 11 12:11:53PM 2007
March 11, 2007
By Julie Ickes
Weekly Spot Uranium Price Indicator Raised to US$90/Pound
ERA ‘Force Majeure’ Stuns Nuclear Utility Community
Flooding at Energy Resources of Australia’s (ERA) Ranger operation in Australia’s Northern Territory led to the company’s announcement of a force majeure. “Even before this Wednesday’s announcement, there were indications that the market price had risen,” wrote Editor Treva Klingbiel in the March 9th edition of Nuclear Market Review. According to the nuclear utility industry trade magazine, bids were increased to purchase U3O8 equivalent at a higher price than the previous record of US$85/pound.
As a result of the increased response to a higher uranium price, industry consulting service TradeTech raised its weekly spot price indicator to US$90/pound. Nuclear Market Review (NMR) reported ERA’s force majeure on uranium sales contracts had ‘stunned the market.’
To read the entire feature, visit:
Posted: Wednesday Mar 7 12:27:31PM 2007
Bought some RSC late afternoon. It had some good results but the stock price went down. Hope it has more good drilling results.
Posted: Monday Mar 5 4:56:35AM 2007
Any update on this since the mini fallout last week?
Posted: Tuesday Feb 20 10:16:23PM 2007
$85/lb should cause some positive momentum for uranium producers and near term stocks as well. Bobwins
From Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets :
Ux Weekly - spot price up $10 to $85
Not entirely unexpected with a small auction by a US producer well flagged and tapping pent up demand, but still extremely positive. There is also significant demand in the term market, estimated at approx 50Mlb , with hedge funds, in particular, looking for material on a fixed price basis to bet on future movements. As previously mentioned, sellers are increasingly looking for market-related pricing as they believe prices are heading higher too. RBC forecasts uranium AVERAGING $100 in 2007.
We are a little surprised that Paladin and ERA are trading largely unchanged, and the second tier of uranium stocks is yet to react, largely as the Ux Weekly comes out around midnight in North America.
Global Mining Sales & Trading
Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets