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By cjack

Posted: Wednesday Feb 7 7:02:38AM 2018

RA was released last night.  10 TCF of gas net to VLE unrisked, 5 TCF risked.  This is huge.  Stock is trading at 8.13 right now.  Read Malcolm Shaw's latest blog on this.

http://www.hydracapital.ca/hydra-blog.html


By cjack

Posted: Monday Feb 5 10:08:36AM 2018

$6.15 so far today.  The company is expected to release an independent Resource Assessment in the next few days, perhaps the next couple of weeks.  Statoil is presenting to its investors on Wednesday, so the hope from many investors is that they will release the RA tomorrow so that Statoil can discuss the results (still unclear how much this discovery moves the needle for Statoil - but it is quite possible that this discovery is material for Statoil).  Most seem to be expecting the RA to predict recoverable resources > 1 TCF of gas plus associated liquids net to VLE.  I've seen people predict numbers anywhere from 2-15 TCF net to VLE.  Note that 1 TCF here is different than 1 TCF of greenfield in Canada:  Turkish gas prices are north of $6/mcf, and the company has existing pipeline running right through the area.  

$6.15 represents a market cap of about $450 million.  I still think it is likely this gets a takeover bid at somewhere between $500 million-$1 billion market cap.  If the RA number is something huge ( say > 5 TCF net to VLE), I guess it could go for more than $1 billion - I've seen others speculate that.  There is a crazy chance this stock gets to $20 or $40 I think if the RA shows really incredible numbers.

The next few days will be interesting as investors wait for the RA.  I am ready to hold if the market "sells on history" when the news comes out.  My exit strategy from this stock is the same as the insiders - wait for a takeover.  I will re-evaluate that stance when I see the RA.  

I wouldn't be surprised to see a $20 million- $30 million financing in the near future, either.  Some research already suggests that and it would help them be in a strong negotiating position if someone tries to come in with a lowball bid.  ("We don't need to be taken over, we can advance this project by ourselves with Statoil...")  Not sure how realistic that is, I've never been in this kind of negotiation.


By cjack

Posted: Tuesday Jan 23 12:37:56PM 2018

http://www.hydracapital.ca/hydra-blog.html

Don't think there isn't still a 2- or 3 bagger left in this.  (Maybe more.)

To be honest, I sold a small portion of my position at $4.95, but I reloaded most of those shares at around $3.75.  I still have most of my original position.

The Stockhouse thread on this company has become a circus (good sign), but if you look on Investor Village under Turkey, there are some good discussions.


By Bobwins

Posted: Tuesday Dec 5 8:31:25AM 2017

congrats to you cjack.  I didn't have the patience to hold it.  It took a long time to drill this well but it looks like it's going to payoff.  The high prices for ngas in Turkey make this a big winner if the basin proves to be a big ngas producing area.  


By cjack

Posted: Friday Dec 1 2:08:46PM 2017

This is just skyrocketing.  Closed at $2.82 today, from somewhere in the $0.70's last week.  There are about 73 million share outstanding.  Market cap is still only 200 million.  This is a tightly held stock, the holders are the faithful.  I see $500 million, $1 billion market cap completely feasible market reactions if positive test data continues to be released.  I would not be surprised to see this get taken out in the $5-$10 range.

Been patiently holding this for two years.  Nice to have a winner like this.

Thanks very much to Bobwins for originally pointing this out on this forum.


By cjack

Posted: Wednesday Nov 29 7:37:17AM 2017

The stock is up over 100% from last week price levels.


By cjack

Posted: Monday Nov 27 6:51:25AM 2017

Trading over $1.00 this morning...

/NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO UNITED STATES NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES/ 
CALGARY, Nov. 27, 2017 /CNW/ - Valeura Energy Inc. ("Valeura" or the "Corporation") (TSX: VLE) is pleased to report positive interim production test results at the Yamalik-1 exploration well in Turkey and to confirm Yamalik as a natural gas and condensate discovery. 
Yamalik-1 is the first deep exploration well drilled under Phase 1 of the Banarli farm-in agreement with its partner Statoil Banarli Turkey B.V. and is the Corporation's first test of the deep, basin-centred gas potential in the Thrace Basin of northwest Turkey. The well was drilled through over-pressured formations below 2,500 metres to a total drilled depth of 4,196 metres. A comprehensive 60-day testing program commenced in early November 2017 comprising four planned production tests with two frac stages per test interval (eight stages in total), starting at the bottom of the well. 
The first of the four planned production tests has been successfully completed in the Kesan formation. Two slick-water fracs were completed in the first production test interval to access approximately 15 metres of indicated net gas pay over a depth interval from 3,996 to 4,147 metres. After establishing steady flow, the well was produced continuously for 44 hours through a range of choke sizes and was concluded on November 25, 2017. Over the final 24 hours of the test the well was produced at an average restricted rate of approximately 0.8 million cubic feet per day ("MMcf/d") of natural gas and 60 to 70 barrels per day of 56(o) API gravity condensate (70 to 80 barrels per MMcf). At the end of the test, the well was still cleaning up. 
This 44-hour flow period for the first production test was viewed as sufficient for preliminary internal evaluation purposes. As disclosed previously, if the aggregate production tests are sufficiently positive, it is planned to tie-in Yamalik-1 to Valeura's existing pipeline and facility infrastructure to enable a long term production test and to generate gas and liquids sales. 
(See advisories below regarding initial production rate disclosure) 
The estimated initial bottom hole pressure in the well is in the range of 10,700 to 11,200 pounds per square inch ("psi") based on a preliminary analysis of a diagnostic fracture injection test carried out in advance of the first stage frac. This pressure is higher than estimated from mud weights during drilling and represents a pressure gradient from surface of 0.80 to 0.84 psi/ft (18.1 to 19.0 kilopascals per metre) or 85 to 94% higher than a normal water pressure gradient. 
Although the Corporation had previously advised that aggregate test results would be disclosed at the end of the test program after all four planned production tests were completed, these interim production test results have exceeded expectations and are viewed as material to the Corporation. The results are also encouraging given that this first production test was in the deepest and lowest porosity test interval. Additionally, the test only accessed approximately 10% of the planned total net pay to be production tested in the well. The condensate content of the gas was also much higher than expected and is a significant value addition to any future on-stream sales. 
These positive interim production test results have increased the likelihood that Yamalik-1 will be tied in at the conclusion of the testing program. Accordingly, the Corporation is commencing engineering and design work to be positioned for a timely tie-in. Any future sales from Yamalik-1 will benefit from strong commodity prices in Turkey. In Q3 2017, the Corporation's realized prices for natural gas and liquids were $6.98 per thousand cubic feet and $65.16 per barrel, respectively. 
The Yamalik-1 testing program is continuing and a bridge plug has been set above the first test interval prior to executing a planned two-stage frac in the second test interval at a depth of approximately 3,950 metres. 
ABOUT THE CORPORATION 
Valeura Energy Inc. is a Canada-based public company currently engaged in the exploration, development and production of petroleum and natural gas in Turkey. 
OIL AND GAS ADVISORIES 
The short production test rates disclosed in this news release are preliminary in nature and may not be indicative of stabilized on-stream production rates. Initial on-stream production rates are typically disclosed with reference to the number of days in which production is measured. Initial on-stream production rates are not necessarily indicative of long-term performance or ultimate recovery. To date, shallow gas conventional wells and fraced unconventional tight gas wells have exhibited relatively high decline rates at more than 50% and 75%, respectively, in their first year of production. All natural gas rates and volumes are presented net of any load fluids. 
A pressure transient analysis or well-test interpretation has not been carried out in respect of the production test on the Yamalik-1 well. 
ADVISORY AND CAUTION REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION 
This news release contains certain forward-looking statements and information (collectively referred to herein as "forward-looking information") including, but not limited to: the design and extent of the testing program for Yamalik-1; the expected timeline for the Yamalik-1 testing program and likelihood the well will be tied in; the potential for a basin-centered gas accumulation ("BCGA") play and its extent; and the potential value addition of liquids production in any future on-stream sales. Forward-looking information typically contains statements with words such as "anticipate", estimate", "expect", "target", "potential", "could", "should", "would" or similar words suggesting future outcomes. The Corporation cautions readers and prospective investors in the Corporation's securities to not place undue reliance on forward-looking information, as by its nature, it is based on current expectations regarding future events that involve a number of assumptions, inherent risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated by the Corporation. 
Forward-looking information is based on management's current expectations and assumptions regarding, among other things: political stability of the areas in which the Corporation is operating and completing transactions, and in particular the aftermath of the July 2016 failed coup attempt in Turkey and April 2017 constitutional referendum; continued safety of operations and ability to proceed in a timely manner; continued operations of and approvals forthcoming from the Turkish government in a manner consistent with past conduct; the prospectivity of the deep potential; and the continued ability to obtain and retain qualified staff and equipment in a timely and cost efficient manner. Although the Corporation believes the expectations and assumptions reflected in such forward-looking information are reasonable, they may prove to be incorrect. 
Forward-looking information involves significant known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Exploration, appraisal, and development of oil and natural gas reserves are speculative activities and involve a significant degree of risk. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated by the Corporation including, but not limited to: uncertainty regarding the contemplated timelines for the Yamalik-1 testing program and possible tie-in; the risks of disruption to operations and access to worksites, threats to security and safety of personnel and potential property damage related to political issues, terrorist attacks, insurgencies or civil unrest in Turkey; political stability in Turkey, including potential changes in Turkey's constitution, political leaders or parties or political turmoil; the uncertainty regarding government and other approvals; counterparty risk; potential changes in laws and regulations; and, risks associated with weather delays and natural disasters. The forward-looking information included in this news release is expressly qualified in its entirety by this cautionary statement. The forward-looking information included herein is made as of the date hereof and Valeura assumes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking information to reflect new events or circumstances, except as required by law. See Valeura's 2016 AIF for a detailed discussion of the risk factors. 
Additional information relating to Valeura is also available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com 
Neither the Toronto Stock Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the Toronto Stock Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this news release. 
SOURCE Valeura Energy Inc. 
View original content with multimedia: http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/November2017/27/c8338.html 
/CONTACT: 
Jim McFarland, CEO, Valeura Energy Inc., (403) 930-1150, jmcfarland@valeuraenergy.com; Sean Guest, President and COO, Valeura Energy Inc., (403) 930-1172, squest@valeuraenergy.com, www.valeuraenergy.com 
/Web site: www.valeuraenergy.com 
Copyright CNW Group 2017 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 27, 2017 07:52 ET (12:52 GMT)


By cjack

Posted: Wednesday Nov 22 6:55:38PM 2017

Big block crossed today and decent close above technical resistance.  Read the blog at hydracapital.ca to understand the magnitude of this play and understand why the next 4 months will be critical.  6 months from now, I predict holders will either be holding a six bagger or a dog which sits at about 50% of today's close.  It all depends on how the deep well testing goes. I think the risk/reward looks attractive and judging by today there may be some good trading days ahead.


By cjack

Posted: Tuesday Jul 25 11:45:55AM 2017

I've posted on this one before.  The risk on this one just got taken down several notches, the upside is huge.  Definitely worth a look at these prices if you can tolerate investing in something which is operating in Turkey.  The deals these guys made in 2016 were just incredible, with no share dilution.

Full press release is here:  http://www.valeuraenergy.com/upload/news_release/167/01/valeura-press-release---yamalik-1-rig-release-final.pdf

Press Release – July 24, 2017
VALEURA ANNOUNCES RIG RELEASE FROM YAMALIK-1 WELL AND POSITIVE EVALUATION RESULTS

Valeura Energy Inc. ("Valeura" or the "Corporation") (TSX: VLE) is pleased to announce that the first deep exploration well, Yamalik-1, under Phase 1 of the Banarli farm-in agreement (the "Banarli Farm-in") with its partner Statoil Banarli Turkey B.V. ("Statoil"), has completed drilling and the drill rig has been released. The well was drilled to a total depth of 4,196 metres and has been cased and left in a state ready for completion and production testing. The estimated well cost at rig release is within budget. Under the Banarli Farm-in, Statoil is funding the drilling of Yamalik-1 on a 100% basis up to a cap of 110% of the budgeted cost.

Yamalik-1 was designed as the Corporation's first test of the deep, basin-centred gas potential in the Thrace Basin of northwest Turkey. The key objectives of this well were to prove the presence of reservoir rock, confirm that the encountered reservoirs are over-pressured, and to demonstrate that there are significant sections of the reservoirs which are gas-saturated. Encouraging gas shows were encountered while drilling the objective section and, based on the drilling data, the well is over-pressured below approximately 2,900 metres down to the total drilled depth of 4,196 metres. Interpretation of the extensive wireline logging data acquired in the objective section indicates the well has exceeded the criteria to proceed further with the completion and to test potential zones with hydraulic stimulation. As the Yamalik-1 well was drilled in an area with no structural closure, the over-pressures and the indicated pervasive gas
saturation in the well are positive indicators of the potential for a basin-centred gas play in the Thrace Basin.  Valeura is currently working with Statoil to design the completion, multi-stage fracing and testing program. Further analysis of the Yamalik-1 well logs and 130 metres of new core data is in progress in order to finalize the design and cost estimate for the completion and testing. It is expected that the completion and testing program will commence late in the third quarter of 2017. Under the Banarli Farm-in, Statoil will pay 100% of the completion and testing program up to a cap of 110% of the agreed budget. Commerciality of the Yamalik-1 well will be determined after the completion and testing program.

After the testing of Yamalik-1 is complete, the Corporation anticipates having improved data to assess the extent of the resources in the tested formations. The Corporation will then work with its partner Statoil to determine potential future work programs for continued delineation of the basin-centered gas play.  In further advancement of the Banarli Farm-in, Statoil is proceeding with Phase 2 of the farm-in agreement, which comprises the acquisition of 3D seismic across the Banarli Farm-in lands and parts of the West Thrace lands not currently covered with 3D seismic. Shooting of the seismic has already commenced, with more than 76 square kilometres recorded to date out of a planned scope of approximately 500 square kilometres. The survey is expected to be completed by early in the fourth quarter of 2017 with Statoil funding 100% of the agreed budget of US$10 million.


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